A few years ago I saw a movie, I do not remember what it was called, in which people in a spaceship were guided only by machines and computer systems. That is, the people did not work, were fed automatically, soft-spoken with brittle entertainment and artificially propagated.
The result was that the brains stunted as the bodies adapted to the situation. That is, the weight increased and there was no reason to walk more stunted legs. Noteworthy was that people had wanted to lead themselves into this situation. The spaceship was the “ark” with which humanity left a destroyed earth to find a new one.
Their fate was left to the artificial intelligence of the machines. You are wondering what this preface has to do with the above headline. Well, for some time now I have been working on the fourth industrial revolution, for reasons of my own interests and self-interest. In detail with topics such as Automation, Internet of Things, Artificial Intelligence, Learning Machines, Robots, Predictive Analytics, Virtual and Mixed Reality.
At the same time I think about how life in, say, will be in 30 years. Certainly, the extreme representation of science – fiction film is unrealistic but still possible in some approaches.
Let’s just set the future for the future – theses ahead, the most authoritative
Take up topics of Industry 4.0:
– Every process that can be digitized is digitized
– Any job that can be replaced by a robot will be replaced
– Everything that can be connected digitally is connected
– Everything that can be automated is automated
– Everything that can be captured in digital data is recorded
– Artificial intelligence becomes the standard for making decisions
– Machines are interconnected and know what to do next
– “Augmented Reality” becomes standard in work processes, ie the worker is guided
– Products will be equipped with RFID chips and lead themselves through production
– Machines wait for themselves with “Predictive Maintenance”
Cloud storage completely replaces classic IT structures
– “Virtual Reality” becomes standard in product development (“Digital Twin”)
– The material flow is controlled by “Autonomous Vehicles”
– “Machine Monitoring” systems will check productivity in real time
– Companies will be decentralized and produce worldwide
– Products are “printed independently” – 3D Printing
The above will come in such a way, respectively, is already reality in partial aspects today. Here, new job descriptions are created but occupations, as in the past industrialization steps, also disappear. In short, many jobs are no longer needed. And in all industries as well as worldwide.
According to a Uno forecast, around 9.2 billion people will live in the world by 2050 – 1.8 billion more than today. In addition, these people will have a significantly longer life expectancy because, of course, healthcare will also benefit from the advances of Industry 4.0.
Leave aside all the other problems that this development entails and focus only on the job aspect. There will only be work for people who, in terms of their level of education, bring along so-called “high skills.” In addition, the matching job offers will be scarce.
Today, Germany has 2.7 million unemployed with approximately 82 million inhabitants. If we predict, through the development presented in advance, a worst case scenario with 50% of non-working residents, we will adapt the Uno prognosis to 50 million affected people.
Attention spoilers beginning!
What do these 50 million do all day? Or. how is their livelihood and life content shaped? At least now comes the aspect of a basic income on the tableau. For the financing there is then a robot tax. Well, ie the working half of the population as well as the robots pay for the existence of the non-working half. In this respect, accommodation and nutrition are guaranteed. However, these people are excluded from the many great products that Industry 4.0 produces, simply because they can not afford it.
That awakens desire and procuring crime will increase. But wait, we’ll have the preliminary analytics that will detect crimes before they are committed. Think about the Sci-Fi movie “Minority Report” by Steven Spielberg.
This means that many people are already in jail because they are latent criminals.
But what will work 4.0 look like in this scenario? Here are some
– Agriculture and the entire food industry will be fully automated and GPS controlled. Food is also automatically produced in this chain in a row
– In Smart Homes, the refrigerator and the food compartment fill up automatically when needed. We only accept the goods at the front door of autonomous drones
– Houses are automatically prefabricated in modules and “mounted” on site by intelligent robots
– Products are produced without humanity and further developed using artificial intelligence
– New ideas for products are developed by neural networks and at the same time analyzed for sales and profit opportunities. Humans therefore only have to press Start, if that is the case
– A product can be easily printed on 3D printers just in time anywhere in the world
– Warehousing is no longer necessary, so the transport logistics for trucks, trains, ships … is largely eliminated.
– In the health sector, diagnoses are made by constantly learning machines. Operations are performed by surgical robots in an exactness that no human can accomplish
– Business decisions are made in the cloud based on artificial intelligence
– Sellers are no longer needed because we make our purchasing decisions in virtual reality and there are also advised by so-called “chatbots”
– If a human being is still needed to perform simple tasks, he will be projected directly into the eye as an instruction (“Augmented Reality”), ie learning abilities is no longer necessary
– In the financial sector, people are no longer necessary because all processes are digitized. Today we already have the outgrowth of high frequency trading here
– Autonomous cars / planes / ships are standard. So we just get in, enter a destination, the rest is done by the vehicle itself
The list could be continued imaginatively. At best, the human being in the work 4.0 still has a monitoring function that can be carried out without time and space. We may work only 40 hours, at least the working portion of the population. And that, mind you, in the month.
What remains? A big share of free time. But we still have art, culture, sports, travel, hobbies and other leisure activities if there is an affinity to it. But at some point in this regard, everything is savored. It remains so; Boredom. And when it bores people, he flees in pretend worlds, drugs or mean entertainment. So, if the intellect withers, we become “couch potatoes”, mutating our bodies …….?
As you notice, I have deliberately exaggerated and overstretched. I am a general optimist and Homo Sapiens has survived 200,000 years and also, in an admittedly short span of time, three industrial revolutions. We will survive the fourth as well. Every industrial revolution has led to greater prosperity, health and a balanced work – life balance. Industry 4.0 will take everything exponentially to another level. But what we should not forget is to take the people on this trip.
I know that has become a hackneyed phrase in the meantime. However, or perhaps for that very reason, today we should look beyond the technical aspect and deal with Work 4.0, Ethics 4.0, Environment 4.0 and Society 4.0.
Thus, business, education, science, culture, philosophy and government are asked to look beyond the edge of the lid and to think.